08.04.04 - Oil - How Long?

OPEC Running on Empty? I found an interesting article in the latest issue of Popular Science magazine. Anyone familiar with the Hubbert curve?

It seems like many traders believe that oil is considerably overvalued and continue to short the recent breakout of a 2-1/2 month short-term consolidation. The upside target for CLU4 (Sep crude) is the $48-50/bbl level. However on a longer-term basis, the move may be in its infancy. On a real basis, crude would need to trade up to $60-90/bbl to match the highs set at the onset of the Gulf War and in the late 1970s.